As September begins, Bitcoin, US stocks and government bonds are testing a historical midterm-election pattern that has often preceded market lows, even as traders price a higher likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate increase.

Bitcoin sits around $77,500.

The S&P 500 remains near record highs, and the 30-year Treasury yield is elevated after briefly touching 5.28% on August 21.

Kalshi traders are pricing in roughly a 53% odds of a September rate hike, versus about 48% for keeping rates unchanged.