ECB Sees Elevated Oil and Gas Price Risks Amid Middle East and Ukraine Tensions
According to Jin10, the European Central Bank indicated that the path for future oil and natural gas prices remains exposed to elevated risks driven by geopolitical developments in the Middle East, Ukraine, and Russia.
It noted that current oil prices sit well below peak levels seen recently, while futures curves have softened; nevertheless, prices stay well above prewar levels over the forecast horizon and upside risks persist.
The report added that declines in oil prices have not yet softened the medium-term inflation trajectory suggested by market pricing, with inflation expectations remaining anchored.
The ECB emphasized its commitment to its price-stability mandate and said it will act in a timely manner to reach its 2% inflation target over the medium term.

