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CME FedWatch Signals 59.0% Chance of September Rate Hold

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Per Jin10, CME FedWatch shows a 59.0% probability that the Federal Reserve will keep rates unchanged in September, with a 41.0% likelihood of a 25-basis-point hike.

For October, the tool indicates a 46.6% chance of no change, a 44.8% probability of a 25-basis-point hike, and an 8.6% probability of a cumulative 50-basis-point hike.

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Democrats Split Over Bernie Sanders' Call to Pause AI Development

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Axios reports that Democratic presidential hopefuls are grappling with a rising backlash over artificial intelligence, but none have endorsed Senator Bernie Sanders' proposal to halt AI development.

Axios asked roughly 20 potential 2028 contenders whether they backed Sanders' call for AI company leaders to stop work on machines humans cannot control, and only one responded directly.

Former Chicago Mayor Rahm Emanuel criticized the idea as a pause without a plan.

About half of the potential candidates did not respond, including Kamala Harris, Gavin Newsom and Pete Buttigieg.

New York Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and California Representative Ro Khanna are the only potential 2028 contenders Axios identified as backing a pause on AI data centers.

Several other Democrats have moved to signal a tougher stance on the issue.

The Axios article cites a Fox News poll showing 70% of voters oppose building an AI data center in their community, and it notes that OpenAI CEO Sam Altman said last week the company has temporarily paused some training.

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Canada-U.S. trade talks collapse heightens tariff risk

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Canada's ambassador to the United States, Mark Wiseman, said the negotiations on a Canada–U.S. trade agreement collapsed on the evening of the 22nd after issues remained unresolved on multiple fronts.

ChainCatcher reported that Wiseman indicated the written text of a potential deal differed from what Canada believed had been reached, and that no single issue alone caused the failure. The breakdown has triggered a new round of tariff measures and could escalate the bilateral trade dispute.

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Long Treasuries Under Pressure Ahead of Warsh Remarks

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Bond traders are monitoring Kevin Warsh's Jackson Hole remarks for clues about the Fed's response to ongoing inflation and fiscal concerns, Bloomberg reports.

Markets are assessing whether long-term Treasuries will extend their recent selloff in the absence of a clear signal from Warsh.

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Hugging Face Attracts Acquisition Offers Valued Up To $13 Billion

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Hugging Face, the open-source artificial intelligence community, is reportedly the target of several acquisition offers, with the combined value of the deals estimated at up to $13 billion.

ChainCatcher notes the bids, and Business Insider is the outlet that reported the information.

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Singapore to Probe Tariff Evasion and Forced-Labor Imports

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Nikkei Asia reported on Sunday that Singapore plans to examine any efforts by firms to reroute goods through the city-state to evade tariffs or to import items produced with forced labor.

Prime Minister Lawrence Wong said the government would act on credible evidence of wrongdoing, but cautioned that enforcement must be realistic given Singapore's role as a global hub for re-exports and transshipment.

He noted that the United States has raised concerns about Chinese goods routed through Southeast Asia, and cited a 12.5% tariff on Singaporean exports that Washington says exists because Singapore lacks a law banning imports of goods produced with forced labor.

Wong said Singapore will continue engaging with the United States to explain its position.

He argued that trade is becoming less free and more shaped by security concerns, and that the world is not defined by the United States and China alone, pointing to Europe, India and other middle powers.

The remarks were delivered at the National Day Rally, the annual policy speech in which Wong outlines key policy announcements.

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