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Killa: Bear Market Drawdowns Shrinking; October $50K Outlook Unlikely

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A BTC-focused quantitative trader named Killa argues that data from multiple bull and bear cycles show bear-market drawdowns are becoming milder, with the bottom of the current cycle possibly already in place, ChainCatcher reports.

He contends that the scenario of Bitcoin slipping to $50,000 in October is highly unlikely.

Looking further, Killa says that if Bitcoin were to fall to around $61,000, long liquidations could total as much as $20 billion. He notes that market makers may have both the incentive and the capacity to liquidate long positions and then rebuild exposure.

As background, Killa is a BTC-focused quantitative trader who previously predicted the peak of this bull market in May 2025 and has more than 200,000 followers on X. He says he shorted Bitcoin at $74,688 in mid-April and switched to a long stance on June 5 amid a broad market decline.

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BitGo completes acquisition of NYDIG's institutional trading unit for $42.5 million

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BitGo has completed a two-step merger to acquire NYDIG's institutional trading business for roughly $42.5 million, comprised of $7 million in cash and about $35.5 million in BitGo stock. The deal includes an earnout tied to revenue milestones and is expected to bring around 30 NYDIG employees to BitGo.

The acquired unit provides derivatives, structured products, financing, and capital markets services to asset managers, hedge funds, corporations, and family offices.

BitGo CEO Mike Belshe said institutional clients are increasingly seeking trusted partners that can support the full digital asset lifecycle, including custody, trading, financing, and settlement.

NYDIG noted the sale enables it to focus on power generation, Bitcoin mining, and high-performance computing data center operations, with a development pipeline exceeding 3 gigawatts.

BitGo went public on the New York Stock Exchange this year with a valuation near $2 billion and has launched the USDS stablecoin.

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BitGo Closes Acquisition of NYDIG's Institutional Trading Arm for About $42.5 Million

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BitGo announced the close of a two-step merger to acquire NYDIG's institutional trading business for approximately $42.5 million, consisting of $7 million in cash and about $35.5 million in BitGo stock.

The transaction brings roughly 30 NYDIG employees and its institutional client relationships into BitGo.

The acquired unit will provide derivatives, structured products, financing, and capital markets solutions to asset managers, hedge funds, corporations, and family offices.

The deal includes performance-based incentives, including a $10 million cash payment tied to a revenue milestone, up to $5 million in cash and additional BitGo shares tied to a second milestone, and retention awards for transferred personnel.

NYDIG said it will focus on power generation, Bitcoin mining, and high-performance computing data centers, and disclosed development reserves of more than 3 gigawatts.

BitGo recently completed its IPO on the New York Stock Exchange, valuing the company at about $2 billion after the offering, and has also launched the USDS token.

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Iran says it dismantled US- and Israel-linked militant cell in Sistan and Baluchestan

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Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said it dismantled a militant cell in the Saravan area of Sistan and Baluchestan Province in southeastern Iran on the 29th local time.

The IRGC described the group as affiliated with the United States and Israel and said it had planned a series of terrorist attacks in the province.

The operation recovered 20 packages containing explosives and related components, weapons and ammunition, and Starlink equipment.

There has been no public response from the United States or Israel.

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Weak Payrolls Could Block a September Fed Hike, Bloomberg's Wong Says

Weak Payrolls Could Block a September Fed Hike, Bloomberg's Wong Says

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Bloomberg economist Anna Wong notes that next week’s non-farm payrolls report could come in softer than expected, potentially even showing negative payroll growth. She emphasizes that there is no modern-era precedent for a Federal Reserve rate hike after two consecutive negative payroll readings.

The argument sets up a direct contrast with remarks from Chairman Kevin Warsh at Jackson Hole, who described the labor market as consistent with full employment, pointing to a 4.1% unemployment rate and four-week average unemployment claims near the lows seen in decades.

Warsh resisted pre-committing to a policy path, insisting he is guided by discipline rather than a fixed decision or a formal reaction function.

Market reaction reflected the data-driven shift: odds of a September hike moved higher, with CME FedWatch showing roughly 42% odds compared with about 35% previously; some intraday measures flashed a swing from around 30% to near 50%.

The repricing was driven more by inflation signals and financial conditions than by payrolls. The personal consumption expenditures price index sits at 3.7% on a 12-month basis, while the six-month pace sits around 4.1%. Warsh argued that softer recent prints do not prove that the underlying trend has meaningfully improved, and he questioned whether financial conditions are truly restrictive.

Wong adds an offsetting variable: a negative payroll print ahead of the September meeting would pit hawkish inflation concerns against an employment signal that has no historical precedent for a hike. In this setup, the decision would hinge more on the intermeeting data than on forward guidance.

In the crypto and broader markets, Bitcoin dipped to about 78,700 after Warsh’s remarks, having risen roughly 9% over the week as rate-hike expectations shifted. The move came alongside softer long-end yields and a weaker dollar, supported by broader Treasury and commodity dynamics, including Brent crude trading below $90 amid an agreement affecting the Strait of Hormuz. Spot Bitcoin ETFs also saw substantial inflows, with about $2.8 billion entering across eight consecutive sessions.

On-chain data from Glassnode indicates roughly 8% of Bitcoin's supply sits between $80,000 and $82,000, and the 50-week moving average sits near $81,081, underscoring whether spot demand could absorb near-term overhead supply or if the ETF momentum could reverse first.

The overarching takeaway is that a weak payrolls print could reinforce a lower-yield backdrop, while a strong payrolls print paired with persistent inflation would uphold the hawkish stance reflected in Warsh’s commentary and the market repricing.

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James Wynn Opens 20x Bitcoin Short on 1.33 BTC

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James Wynn, identified by the partial wallet address 0x507...edb6, initiated a 20x leveraged short against Bitcoin. The trade covers 1.33 BTC and carries a notional value of $103,000, with a liquidation price set at $80,483.47.

The position was reported by Odaily, which cited Lookonchain as tracking the trade.

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James Wynn Opens 20x Bitcoin Short With $80,483 Liquidation Price

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BlockBeats reported on August 29 that TradingBeats, formerly Hyperinsight, tracked James Wynn as he opened another 20x Bitcoin short, with a liquidation price set at $80,483 and a current position value of $103,000.

BlockBeats On-chain Detection notes Wynn’s most recent activity prior to this occurred in late July and early August, when he repeatedly shorted the S&P 500 and faced multiple liquidations.

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Polymarket Trader Bets $117K on LGD to Beat TES in LPL Playoffs Prediction

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An account with more than $370,000 in profits placed a $117,000 LGD wager in Polymarket's LPL Third Stage Playoffs LGD vs. TES market, comprising 335,483 shares at an average entry price of 34.8 cents.

Odaily reported that the LGD vs. TES match began at 17:00 on August 29 and was configured as a best-of-five series.

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Polymarket T1 Win Odds Fall 15 Points in LCK Playoffs Market

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Polymarket's market for the LCK Playoffs matchup between T1 and BNK FEARX (BO5) experienced a notable decline in the T1 win option under the match-winner submarket. The implied probability moved from 92.5% to 77.5% in about one hour, a 15-percentage-point drop.

ChainCatcher noted that the decline appears linked to a sudden news development surrounding the event.

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