Waterdrop Capital partner Da Shan argued on Binance Square's Blockchain 100 that the broad, altcoin price rallies seen in prior bull markets may be behind us, even as he expects Bitcoin to enter another upcycle that could push toward $200,000–$300,000 or higher.
He traced his path from building mining rigs during his PhD studies in 2013, to leaving Huawei HiSilicon in 2017 to found Waterdrop Capital, and investing in more than 200 projects; in 2025 he became chairman of AI company Good Vision AI.
In the near term, he is upbeat on September and October performance but plans to tighten risk controls after mid-October as the U.S. midterm elections approach, ready to pull back at the first sign of trouble.
His approach is symmetrical rather than directional: favorable midterm results for the incumbent could reduce the need for crypto exposure, while unfavorable outcomes could spur crypto policy moves that hurt the market. He treats these as short‑term noise and argues that both parties are converging on crypto policy. On a four‑year cycle, the current six months and the first half of next year are expected to sit in a bear phase, which underpins his longer‑term optimism.
Da Shan also shared personal losses, noting he bought near $80,000, watched it fall to $70,000 and then $60,000 before bottoming, and has since seen a rebound toward $80,000 with his BTC holdings in this cycle higher than in the previous cycle.
Regarding Bitcoin Layer 2s, he offered a blunt assessment: he did not view L2s as particularly essential, but promoted them to counter Ethereum's crowded L2 ecosystem. He noted Bitcoin L2 projects number about a dozen, versus hundreds on Ethereum, with most having faded. Survivors include River, Lorenzo, Particle, Merlin and B², many already listed on Binance. These assets supported Waterdrop's latest fund NAV, but he cautioned that the projects must survive the bear market and build real competitive advantages as Bitcoin's market cap rises.
On founders listing rather than token issuance, Da Shan argues that high‑quality projects should pursue stock listings because the payoff is larger, even though listing is harder due to more stringent regulatory requirements. Nasdaq's crypto exposure is limited, and token issuance means competing with thousands of tokens. His guidance to founders is to build real revenue and customers, recognizing Nasdaq has strict revenue and size thresholds and that crypto firms struggle on A‑share listings or in Hong Kong. He says he has persuaded several teams to pivot, with at least five Waterdrop portfolio companies lined up for listings based on actual business; Good Vision AI, where he is chairman, is advancing toward Nasdaq listing after revenue growth rather than a token launch, and is set to list on Nasdaq.AI.
He frames AI and blockchain as two sides of the same coin in the digital economy. Good Vision AI began with token routing and compute‑power solutions for enterprises, but he emphasizes that AI and blockchain complement each other and that neglecting one while praising the other is a mistake. He argues that miners moving into AI does not hurt the industry: bear‑market math showed AI tokens in the same space can be more profitable than Bitcoin, prompting capacity to shift, with operators returning when Bitcoin reclaims higher prices. Traditional institutions continue to accumulate quietly through downturns as well.
Data cited in support include IREN's $2.8 billion in contracts with Microsoft, Nvidia, Perplexity and Figure AI; Hut 8's $9.8 billion Beacon Point lease; and HIVE's $350 million GPU cloud deal lifting contracted annual recurring revenue to about $180 million.
Da Shan does not see an AI bubble at present, though he cautions that one could form or markets could collapse. He identifies two triggers: macro factors like the midterms and a sentiment pivot driven by IPOs of major AI players such as Anthropic. Nvidia’s latest guidance underlines growing AI demand, with Q3 revenue projected at $108 billion versus $103.9 billion expected, while margins show some pressure as gross margin is guided down to 74% from 75% sequentially.
In crypto, he regards tokenized real‑world assets (RWAs) as the biggest opportunity and says Waterdrop is in talks to invest in an RWA project Binance plans. For retail versus institutions, he suggests two paths: hold Bitcoin long term to resist market manipulation, and pursue on‑chain opportunities that give retail roughly the same access as institutions. He cautions that pre‑IPO dynamics and crypto listings often see prices retreat post‑open, and that if elite traditional finance operators enter crypto, losses could be even larger for retail participants.
His take on RWAs is nuanced: tokenized assets have roughly tripled to around $29–$33 billion in a year, with tokenized US Treasuries alone over $13 billion, but most large tokenized assets exhibit little weekly transfer activity, and only about a tenth of RWA value is actively deployed in DeFi, indicating issuance may be outpacing usage.
Ultimately, Da Shan highlights long‑term thinking and principled focus: patience through cycles and a disciplined approach to pursuing opportunities you truly excel at and enjoy, recognizing that energy is finite and chasing every trend leads to distraction.